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Retail and production

Car

New car registrations

153,610
(Nov '24 -1.9% YoY)
Downward
1,811,922
('24 YTD, +2.8% YTD)
Upward
i
The number of new cars registered in the UK every month.
SMMT
Updated: 05/12/2024

New car forecast (2025)

2.30m
(upside)
Upward
2.04m
(baseline)
Upward
1.74m
(downside)
Downward
i
The Cox Automotive new car registration forecast - 2024 full year.
Cox Automotive
Updated: 04/12/2024

Used car transactions

1,884,160
(Q3 '24, +4.3% YOY)
Upward
5,897,129
('24 YTD, +6.0% YOY)
Upward
i
The number of used cars sold in the UK every quarter.
SMMT
Updated: 04/12/2024

Used car forecast (2025)

7.80m
(upside)
Upward
7.48m
(baseline)
Upward
7.13m
(downside)
Downward
i
Cox Automotive used car transactions forecast - 2024 full year.
Cox Automotive
Updated: 04/12/2024

UK new car production

77,484
(Oct '24, -15.3% YOY)
Downward
670,346
('24 YTD, -10.8% YOY)
Downward
i
The number of new cars manufactured in the UK each month.
SMMT
Updated: 04/12/2024

Retail margin

£2,252
(Nov '24, +£100 MOM)
Upward
i
The average margin between cars bought on Dealer Auction and retailed on Auto Trader.
Dealer Auction
Updated: 04/12/2024

Retail demand

+6%
(Nov '24, YOY)
Upward
i
Demand is a measure of consumer response on Auto Trader used car adverts.
Auto Trader
Updated: 04/12/2024

Used car supply

-7%
(Nov '24, YOY)
Downward
i
Supply is the level of used car stock in the market.
Auto Trader
Updated: 04/12/2024

Market health

+13%
(Nov '24, YOY)
Upward
i
Market Health is the balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used car market is stronger or weaker than previously.
Auto Trader
Updated: 04/12/2024

Median days before sold

31
(Nov '24, +2 YOY)
Upward
i
Market Health is the balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used car market is stronger or weaker than previously.
Auto Trader
Updated: 05/07/2024

Wholesale

Car

Average sold price

£7,542
(Nov ' 24, -£265 MOM)
Downward
i
The average sold price of used cars at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

Wholesale price index

95.1
(Nov '24, -1 MOM)
Downward
i
This index tracks the price performance of 2–4-year-old, 50K-70K, grade 1 to 5 cars sold through Manheim auctions relative to January 2020 prices.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

Average mileage

69k
(Nov '24, +0k MOM)
i
The average mileage of used cars at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

Average age

101.6
(Nov '24, -1.4 MOM)
Downward
i
The average sold price of used cars at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

First-time conversions

83%
(Nov '24, -3.5% MOM)
Downward
i
The percentage of used cars sold first time at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

CAP value movements

-1.6%
(Dec '24, MOM)
Downward
i
The average change at 3-year/60k miles in used cars CAP values each month.
cap hpi
Updated: 04/12/2024

Wholesale supply index

69.6
(Nov '24, +5.3 MOM)
Upward
i
This index tracks the supply of wholesale vehicles relative to January 2020 supply levels.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

Wholesale demand index

77.1
(Nov '24, -9.6 MOM)
Downward
i
This index tracks the demand for wholesale vehicles relative to whatever the start date was demand levels.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

Commentary

“The UK new car market continued to contract in November, with registrations down -1.9%, falling -2.3% below the 2000-2019 average but within just 11 registrations of November 2019. While electric vehicles (EVs) saw impressive growth, rising 58.4% year-on-year and reaching 25.1% market share, this performance relied heavily on unsustainable manufacturer discounts totalling £4 billion across 2024. Fleet registrations remain the primary driver of EV adoption, while private registrations continue to face significant headwinds, highlighting affordability and infrastructure concerns.
 
This result underscores the industry’s challenges in meeting the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, with year-to-date BEV market share at 18.7%, still below the 22% target for 2024. While November’s performance supports our 2.0m forecast for the year, it also signals the critical need for urgent government intervention. Without accelerated infrastructure rollout, robust consumer incentives, and clear market regulation, the sector risks falling short of the ambitious targets set for 2025 and beyond.”

Philip Nothard - Insight & Strategy Director

Updated: 05/12/24

Commentary

Retail and production

Commercial vehicle

New LCV registrations

30,300
(Nov '24, +10.5% YOY)
Upward
324,613
('24 YTD, +4.1 % YTD)
Upward
i
The number of new LCVs registered in the UK each month.
SMMT
Updated: 05/12/2024

UK LCV production

12,387
(Oct '24, -3.9% YOY)
Downward
105,834
('24 YTD, +6.9% YOY)
Upward
i
The number of new LCVs manufactured in the UK each month.
SMMT
Updated: 04/12/2024

New HGV registrations

10,839
(Q3 '24, -6.0% YOY)
Downward
33,376
(-2.5% '24 YTD)
Downward
i
The number of new HGVs registered in the UK each quarter.
SMMT
Updated: 04/12/2024

Wholesale

Commercial vehicle

Average sold price

£7,614
(Nov '24, +£443 MOM)
Upward
i
The average sold price of used LCVs at Manheim Auction Services
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

Average age

69
(Nov '24, -1.2 MOM)
Downward
i
The average age in months of used LCVs at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

Average mileage

79k
(Nov '24, -2k MOM)
Downward
i
The average mileage of used LCVs at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

CAP average

98.8%
(Nov '24, +0.6% MOM)
Upward
i
The average CAP performance of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

First-time conversions

81.4%
(Nov '24, +0.1% MOM)
Upward
i
The percentage of used LCVs sold first time at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim
Updated: 04/12/2024

CAP value movements

-0.7%
(Nov '24, MOM)
Downward
i
The average change at 3-year/60k miles in used LCVs CAP values each month.
cap hpi
Updated: 04/12/2024

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